AWIO20 FMEE 041153
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/04/04 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Monsoon flow exists only west of 60E. It feeds a monsoon trough
with scattered but locally heavy
convective activity
between
Seychelles Archipelago, Northern Malagasy Cape and Comoros
Archipelago.
East of 65E, basin is in Near Equatorial Trough feature waving
between 05S and 10S.
Associated convective activity is generally weak and sparsed and
mainly exists southwest of the residual circulation of the Tropical
Disturbance nr 08.
Remnants of the Tropical Disturbance nr8:
The system keeps on undergoing a strong east-northeasterly vertical
windshear on the equatorial edge of the upper level ridge
stretching along 16S axis.
Since 0500Z, LLCC is again totally exposed northeast of the main
convective activity.
It is bad defined and is approximatily centered at 1000Z near
9.2S/91.4E thanks to classical satellite animations.
LLCC remains quasi-stationnary for the last 2 days.
MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa with maximum winds at 15/20 kt
locally reaching 25kt.
Available NWP models are in a rather good agreement and don't
forecast a significative regeneration.
Within a weak steering flow environment, the residual low is
expected to drift in the same area for the next lead time 24 to 48
hours
filling up.
For the next 72 hours, there is no potential for development of a
tropical depression.

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