AWIO20 FMEE 201051
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/02/20 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
ITCZ is fed by a moderate to weak monsoon flow from West to East.
It is present on the northern Mozambique Channel between 10S and
15S, and East to 60E between 5S to 10S. Associated convective
activity is generally weak.
System nr05 ex-BINGIZA :
The system is very dizorganized and without convection. The centre
is localized thanks to color composite satellite animation.
At 0900Z : 27.2S/45.7E - Movement Southward at 6 kt
MSLP is estimated at 1000 hPa and maximum winds at 20/25 kt up to
30 kt in the south-eastern quadrant from 120 up to 320 NM from the
center in relationship with the subtropical high pressures gradient
effect.
It is expected to accelerate on a south-eastward track by making
its extra-tropicalization with associated strong winds enduring in
its southern part.
System nr06 near Rodrigues Island :
Low level clockwise circulation is still visible. Convection is
moderate and fluctuating in the northwestern quadrant. The system
is making a small loop toward the North.
Position at 0900Z : 20.3S/64.5E - Quasi stationary.
MSLP : 1009 hPa -
Maximum winds 15/20 kt.
In a weak steering flow environment, this system is expected to
slowly shift westward within the next days.
Environmental conditions are not favourable for intensification
(marginal ocean heat content and weak low level inflow).
For the next 72 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.

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