AWIO20 FMEE 141034
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/02/14 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning WTIO30 and WTIO22 n 021/05 issued for
Tropical Cyclone BINGIZA. Next warnings will be issued at 1200Z
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Over land depression ex BINGIZA :
Position at 0900Z: 15.9S/42.9E
Motion: Westwards 8kt overt the
past 6 hours
Bingiza has made landfall early in the morning north of Manambolosy
on the eastern coast.
Bingiza should concern a broad northern half of Madagascar ,
directly (eastern regions the all the northen part) and undirectly
in a first step (Mozambique Channel coastline).
Heavy rain directly linked to the System should progress over the
north
part of
Madagascar.
On the Mozambique Channel area, thundery and heavy rain activity is
expected to increase
in relationship with peripheral bands
associated with the system from comoros to the northwestern coast
then between 10S and 20S on the channel for the next 48 hours.
In relationship with the overland (crossing east to west )
Madagascar track , winds are expected to rapidly decrease near the
residual circulation center but heavy rain activity should still
exists on the northern part of malagasy.
Bingiza's remnants should come back over sea at weakened stage on
wenesday. In relationship to very good environmental conditions
over Mozambique Channel, re-intensification is expected.
For further details, see Warning WTIO30 and WTIO22 n 021/05 and
followings.
Elsewhere over the basin :
Last
Meteosat 7 satellite imagery shows 2 low level clockwise
circulations. The both are associated with not well organized
convection in relationship with an easterly moderate vertical
windshear.
- The western suspect low is centered at
0900Z near 14S/63E at
about 600 km on the North of Rodrigues Island. MSLP is estimated at
1003 hpa, convective activity is not yet well organized. Maximum
winds near the center are estimated at 15/20kt.
This low is expected to drift slowly southwards towards more
favourable environemental conditions. Some available NWP models
forecast a significative deepening of this low on and after
wenesday.
- The other suspect low is bad defined and is centered at
0900Z near 12.6S/75.6E.
MSLP is estimated at 1006hPa with winds near the center at about
15/20kt (Jason 13/0157Z swath). There is no potential for
intensification.
For the next 48 hours, development of a tropical depression is not
expected (except Binziga back over Sea) .
The potential becomes poor to moderate beyond Wenesday in
relationship with the low located in the north of Rodrigues island.

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