AWIO20 FMEE 021139
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/02/02 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Monsoon Trough is progressivily rebuilding between 10S and 15S over
the all width of our AOR.
Associated deep convective activity remains very scattered from
equator to 20S and is locally strong.
This zonal ITCZ is expected to keep on existing within the next few
days between 10S and 15S and the upper level ridge is expected to
progressivily install along 20S.
This forecast dephasing between low and high levels should generate
moderate to strong easterly vertical windshear over ITCZ ,
unfavourable for cyclogenesis at short or medium range.
Deep convective activity along eastern Malagasy coastline is
sustained by the left exit of the upper level Jet under a good
upper level divergence axis depite a lack of convergence in the low
levels.
This thundery activity is expected to shift northwards. along the
coastline.
The remnants of the ex tropical low nr4 is now extratropical and is
streered by the westerly general circulation.
It would take away the low level convergence axed along 55E in the
south of the Mascarenes from from 20S to 30S.
There is no other suspect area on the basin.
For the next 72 hours, development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

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