AWIO20 FMEE 291159
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/29 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
East of 55E, monsoon flow feeds an ITCZ located between 5S and 10S.
Associated deep convection is located near the Seychelles
archipelago (88 mm in 24h at 06Z at Mahe airport) and east of 80E
and along 10S. No suspect area is present.
West of 55E, monsoon flow feeds 2 areas of low pressure located
east and west of Madagascar.
-East of Madagascar and Southwest of Reunion-Mauritius islands:
The low pressure area monitored since yesterday show today a fairly
well defined low level vortex located at 10Z near 24.8S and 53.6E
about 230 NM (430 km) southsouthwest of La Reunion. MSLP is
estimated at 1002 hPa and associated winds in the 10/20 kt range
reaching 25 kt in th eastern semi-circle up to 200 NM from the
center due to gradient effect. Current motion is towards the south
at 5-6 kt. Associated weather is rather far away from the center
mainly in the northeastern quadrant within the monsoon flow. At
10Z, Reunion island reports 24h rain rate in the range of 150-170
mm over the northern coast with higher amount up tp 400 mm over
montainous areas.
This low should continu to move southwards and then southwestwards
within the next 48 hours. Before undergo a stronger northwesterly
shear and cooler SST (south of 30S), this low should slightly
deepen and generate near gale to locally gale force winds in its
eastern sector mainly due to gradient effect with subtropical
ridge. Associated disturbed weather should maintain over th
Reunion-Mauritius sector within the next 24 hours.
-In the Mozambique channel:
Severe thunderstorm activity is located between 15S and 20S mainly
along the western coast of Madagascar. Satellite imagery and
surface obs suggest that a 1003 hPa low may exist near 20S/43.7E
about 30 NM west of Madagascar coastlines. Surrounding pressure
show strong fall during the last 24 hours. (-3.9 hPa at Juan de
Nova at 09Z ; -2.9 hPa at Morombe at 06Z). This low should make
landfall shortly and consequently has no potential for further
developement. However, heavy rainfalls should continu to affect
large portions of the western coast of Madagascar between 15S and
20S.
For the next 72 hours, there is no potential for the development of
a tropical depression in the Mozambique channel. The potential is
low with the system south of La Reunion.

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