AWIO20 FMEE 281115
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/28AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Monsoon flow is established from African coastline to 60E. It
extends down to 23S in the Mozambique channel and down to
26S
between 53E and 60E.
In the Mozambique Channel , the associated monsoon trough is active
but disorganized and deep convective activity is moderate to strong
from 15S to 25S.
Near the Mascarenes, northwesterly monsoon flow feeds a Mesoscale
Convective System over La Reunion area.
Recent multispectral imagery (HRV-MSG2 / Radar) reveals a mid to
probably low level circulation center existing close from the
southwestern La Reunion Island coastline.
This low is centered at 0900Z near 21.4S/54.4E
moving
southeastwards at 11kt.
MSLP is estimated at 1004 hPa thanks to Buoy-17518 and wind near
the supposed low level center probably not exceed 15/20kt (the LLCC
not resolved by Ascat 0508Z).
But due to the own translation speed of this low and the good
monsoon inflow, 10mn winds can probably reach 25kt and very locally
30kt in the northeastern semi-circle including Reunion island with
strong gusts under squalls.
Only the french high resolution limited area NWP model
Aladin-Reunion seems to analyse this vortex if I refer to 850 hPa
Aboslute Vorticity field and forecast for the next
12 hours a
southeastwards motion at 15kt without deepen significantly.
It is expected to merge within another broad low level circulation,
totally exposed at 0900Z near
23.3S/52.2E.
East of 60E, basin is in Near Equatorial Trough pattern stretching
along 10S axis with low and very scattered convective activity.
There is no other suspect area in the basin.
For the next 72 hours potential for the development of a tropical
depression is poor.

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