AWIO20 FMEE 151112
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/15 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Neant.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial flow, established on the major part of the basin,
feeds a fairly well defined ITCZ East of 65E and axed along 8S/60E
- 6S/70E - 5S/90E. Associated convective activity is scattered and
shows no sign of organisation.
Convection has again developed since yesterday afternoon on the
western part of the DT nr3 residual minimum, with a persistent
cluster. The low level centre is partially exposed East of this
cluster and at 0930Z, is located near 16.8S/52.9E at about 280 NM
to the North-North-West of La Reunion and 160 NM to the eastern
coastlines of Madagascar. It is moving westward at 7/8 kt. MSLP is
estimated at 1004 hPa. Latest available ASCAT swath (15/0616Z)
indicates winds at about 10/20 kt, locally reaching 25 kt, and
likely very locally 30 kt under convection.
According to available NWP models, the system is expected to keep
tracking westward and make landfall on Madagascar, sunday morning,
between Cap Masoala and Sainte-Marie island. Environment is not
favourable for strengthening before its landfall (moderate to
fairly strong windshear - no monsoon inflow and dry air present to
the north).
Associated convective activity should bring some heavy rains on the
eastern part of Madagascar, between 15S and 20S, from late today.
For the next 24 hours,
the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor.

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