AWIO20 FMEE 101039
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/10 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Neant.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial flow is established west of 65E and feeds a
scattered ITCZ extending between 10S and 20S on the North of the
Mozambique Channel, and between 5S and 15S from 50E to 70E.
On the Mozambique Channel, associated convective activity is
moderate to strong, but very fluctuating and disorganized.
Between 50E and 70E, a broad elongated low level circulation
persists (remnants of Tropical Depression nr3), but it is not easy
to locate the centre. Latest scatterometric data (ASCAT at 0437Z)
show a centre very approximately localized near 12.5S/62.5E and
thus suggest a west-north-westward slow motion. The Minimum Sea
Level Pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa (Buoys 14931 and 53549) and
winds at about 10/15 kt. Convection is mainly present within the
western part of the circulation.
Upper level conditions are good, but low level environment is still
unfavourable (lack of moisture and convergence). For the next three
days, none of the available NWP models deepen significantly this
low.
For the next 72 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.

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