AWIO20 FMEE 051155
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2011/01/05 AT 1200 UTC - CORRECTIF first sentence
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Neant.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Transequatorial flow persists West of 80E. It feeds a weak ITCZ
axed from 50E to 75E, between 2S and 8S.
West of 60E and North of 20S, convective activity is moderate and
fluctuating along an axis stretching from western coastlines of
Madagascar up to Seychelles. Within this activity, a small low
level vortex is visible since yesterday on satellite imagery. Now,
we can located it near 8.5S/52.5E, to the South-West of Seychelles,
with winds in range of 10/15 kt, locally 20 kt on the North of the
circulation (ASCAT 05/0440Z).
Remnants of Tropical Depression nr3 :
Blow up of convection has occurred last night within the western
part of the low level circulation, but is dropping off for the
latest hours.
Estimated position of the centre at 0900Z : 13.7S/76.1E
Motion: westward at 6 kt
Estimated minimum pressure : 1003 hPa
Maximum winds : 10/15 kt reaching locally 20/25 kt in the southern
semi-circle far away from the centre.
Within the next three days, most of available NWP models slowly
fill up the low associated with TD nr3 remnants and maintain it on
a slow westward track. They do not deepen the low located
South-West of Seychelles. The lack of supply with a dry air within
low-middle layers is the main missing factor. ALADIN Model
deepens
small lows beyond tau 24, between Madagascar and Seychelles, but
this option seems very questionable.
For the next 72 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not expected.

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