AWIO20 FMEE 281050
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/12/28 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity has strengthened within the ITCZ for the last
24 hours East of 80E, between 10S and 15S.
Transequatorial monsoon flow exists from African coast to 80E, but
remains weak between 65E and 80E. A westerly flow exists east of
80E, between Equator and 10S.
ASCAT data suggests a broad and elongated low level circulation
between 85E and 100E, along 11S.
Winds are in the range of 10kt.
Moderate east upper level wind shear exists north of 15S.
CEP and Arpege NWP models are in good agreement to forecast
intensification of this low within the next three days, but East of
90E, while monsson inflow is expected to improve.
There is no other suspect area over the bassin.
For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression West of 90E is poor.

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