AWIO20 FMEE 261137
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/11/26 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Moderate to strong convective activity is still present in the
eastern part of the basin within the Near Equatorial Trough between
equator and 10S and mainly East of 75E.
Latest scatterometric data (ASCAT at 0346Z) still reveal a broad
clockwise circulation very approximately centred near 4.5S/89E and
winds at about 10/20 kt. MSLP can be estimated at about 1005 hPa.
The associated deep convection is mainly located in the western
part of the circulation and rather far away from the estimated
center.
Currently quasi-stat, the system should progressively track
southsouthwestwards towards a mid-level weakness in the subtropical
ridge located near 80E. On this expected track, environmental
conditions appear favourable for developement (decreasing
windshear, improvment of the low-level inflow and the upper level
divergence). SST potential seems good north of 15S.
Available models (CEP, ARP, ALA, UKMO) analyze this low and deepen
it at a slow rate up to sunday and then more quickly.
For the next 72 hours, potential for this system to become a
significant TC is poor saturday, fair sunday and fair to good
monday.

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