AWIO20 FMEE 050959
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2010/11/05
AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Thunderstorm activity is weak west of 90E and mainly associated
with remnants of TD n 1, and ex Anggrek.
TD n 01 remnants :
Position estimated at 0900Z: 7.3S/55.8E
Estimated central pressure: 1009 hPa.
Current motion north-north-westward about 6kt.
Maximum wind speed: 15kt, 20 kt in the southern semi-circle.
No re-intensification expected, even if convection is temporaly
rebuilding near the center.
Remnants of Ex-Anggrek :
The low level circulation of the system monitored by TCWC of Perth,
came in our AoR during the last hours. The cirulation is completly
exposed with no more convection.
It is centered at 0900Z near 16S/89.8E and current motion is
westwards at 10kt.
Maximum estimated 10mn winds at 20/25kt locally 30kt in the
wouthern semi-circle with estimated MSLP at 1001 hPa.
Available guidance (ECMWF, ARP and UKMO) show that the system
should track southwards towards a deep mid lat trough. However the
system should remain weak due to not conducive environmental
conditions (shear and low oceanic heat contain).
No other suspect area on the basin.
For the next 72 hours, the devloppement of a tropical depression
is not expected.

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