AWIO20 FMEE 071100
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/01/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
- ITCZ
The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone stretches from 45E/10S to
85E/5S, between a weak to moderate monsson flow and a moderate
trade wind flow. The satellite imagery reveals 3 low level
clockwise circulations :
- 9.0S/62.0E
- 7.5S/72.0E
- 4.2S/86.8E
The environmental conditions are about the same for these 3
circulations : SST reaching 28/29 degrees, vicinity of the upper
level ridge (giving a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and
rather good poleward divergence). The vertical wind shear and the
weak convergence do not permit the associated convective activity
to consolidate durably. These 3 circulations are associated with
1007/1008 hPa relative low, and with 10/20 kt maximum winds.
Available NWP products do not deepen any of these lows at short
range.
- System nr 07
The low level clockwise circulation is badly defined, the centre
tracked overland near 26.3S/31.6E at 0900Z over Swaziland. The
associated convective activity is mainly located north of the LLCC,
it remains fluctuating with the diurnal cycle ; the stormy weather
may locally cause heavy rainfall (reaching 50 to 100 mm per 24h)
and strong gusts under squalls. This system is expected to track
mainly southwards, disorganizing gradually. Few NWP products track
the system over sea again within 24 hours, without significant
intensification.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is
not expected.

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