AWIO20 FMEE 041130
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/01/04 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Warning 003/07 issued at 06Z. Next warning will
be issued at 12Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) exists along 06S axis
over all the basin, going down to 25S in the Mozambique Channel.
Fluctuating associated convective activity is scatered, weak to
moderate and fluctuating. A weak low 1008hPa may exist near 9S/63E,
associated to inorganized fluctuating convective activity. Some NWM
products deppen this low at medium range.
The low of the zone of disturbed weather n 7 has
intensified
during the last hours, just before its landscape near Vilanculos,
and is now classified as tropical disturbance. At 09Z, the minimal
pressure is estimated at 1002 hPa, the centre is located by
22.4S/35.6E, moving westsouthwestwards at 8kt. Associated maximum
winds up to 20/25 kt, locally reaching 30 kt in the eastern
semi-circle, with strong gusts under squalls.
The environment is moderatly southsourhwesterly sheared. The low
level inflow is rather good in the northern part, but doesn't exist
in the southern part.
For further informations, see BMS 004/04 that will be isued at 12Z.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a
tropical depression is poor.

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