AWIO20 FMEE 291117
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/12/29 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) exists over the basin
between 3S and 11S, going down to 15S in the Mozambique Channel.
Associated convective activity is moderate and fluctuating. Monsoon
flow is well established between african coasts and 60E.
-1- Within the ITCZ, an area of fluctuating convective activity
exists between 6S and 10S, from 53E to 58E. Associated to this
convection a low level clockwise circulation can be detected thanks
to the animated imagery, centred at 0900Z near 8.5S/56.5E. Minimal
Sea Level Pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa, and winds at 15 knots.
The monsoon surge is good but the southeasterly windshear is
moderate to rather strong. Potential is weak.
ARP and ECMWF models analyze this low but do not develop it
significantly at short nor medium range.
-2- A second area of fluctuating convective activity exists
between 3S and 10S, from 73E to 83E, but no well defined clockwise
circulation can be associated.
-3- Tropical disturbance nr 06
The system is filling slowly up, MSLP is estimated at 1007 hPa.
Located near 21.4S/60.1E at 0900Z, the system tracks
south-southwestwards at 18 knots.
It is forecast to track towards the trough and dissipate within 24
hours.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is
not expected.

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