AWIO20 FMEE 211142
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/10/21 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity remains moderate and fluctuating north of
10S and east of 70E.
In the vicinity of Chagos Islands, a cluster of convective
activity exists between 5S and 10D from 70E to 75E. Associated low
level circulation is located by 5.5S/74E at 1000Z. MSLP is
estimated at 1007 hPa and maximum winds reach 10/15 kt, with strong
gusts in squalls.
In this area, SST reach 28 C, but vertical wind shear is moderate
(estimated to 15kt according to CIMSS data), what is unfavorable
for consolidation of convection near the LLCC.
NWP models analyze this low, maintain it for a few days in this
area, without significant intensification.
The residual vortex of the ex-tropical disturbance nr2 is
exposed without any associated deep convection. The LLCC was
located near 10.5S/56.8E at 1100Z, tracking westnorthwestwards at
14kt, with associated maximum winds reaching 10/15 kt around the
centre.
For the next 24 hours,
development of a tropical depression is
not expected.

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