AWIO20 FMEE 171102
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/10/17 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
The last warning related to the tropical disturbance nr 02 has been
issued the 05/10/15 at 1800Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
1- The residual vortex of the tropical disturbance nr2 is
exposed and still well organized, without any deep convective
activity. The low, located at 1000Z by 15.0S/76.4E, estimated at
1004 hPa, is tracking westward at 5kt.
Associated winds are estimated at 20/25kt near the center, reaching
near gale force winds 30 kt, and locally gale force winds 35kt , up
to 200 NM from the centre in the southwestern quadrant, due to the
gradient with subtropical high pressures (cf last night ascending
quikscat pass).
Vertical wind shear is still moderate, upper level divergence is
lightly favorable in the vicinity of the upper level ridge ; but
low level inflows are rather weak and the SST only reach 24/25 C,
so the energetic environment is unfavorable for re-intensification.
NWP models agree to track the system westwards, on the northern
edge of the rebuilding subtropical high pressures, and dissipate it
gradually within 24 to 48 hours.
2- In relationship with tropical disturbance Nr2 but far from
the center and east of 85E, , any peripherics bands are rather
active between 10Sand 15S. Deep convection remains cyclic.
3 -
Elsewhere, ICTZ activity is weak between equator and 7S
and east of 60E.
For the next 24 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

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