AWIO20 FMEE 151044
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/10/15 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 010/02 related to the tropical depression nr 02, issued
at 0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
1- ITCZ activity is weak near the equator, east of 60E.
2- Tropical Depression nr 2 : at 0900Z, system nr 2 was located
near 13.5S/80.7E (with MSLP estimated at 999hPa), tracking
southwestwards at 7 kt. The convection weakened last night and is
now fluctuating. Vertical wind shear is weak, upper level
divergence is favourable in the vicinity of the upper level ridge ;
but the SST only reach 26/27 C, and energetic environment is
critical for the system.
Lower layer clockwise circulation remains well organized, winds
reach 25/30 kt, locally 35/40 in the southern semi-circle.
NWP models agree to track the system westwards, on the northern
edge of the rebuilding subtropical high pressures, and dissipate it
gradually within 36 to 48 hours.
For further information see warnings nr 010/02 and followings.
For the next 24 hours,
development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

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