AWIO20 FMEE 141051
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/10/14 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 06 related to the tropical depression nr 02, issued at
0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
-1- In the western edge of the Near Equatorial Trough (NET), an
area of cyclic convection exists between 02S and 08S and between
61E and 72E.
Within this area, INDOEX satellite imagery reveals a totally
exposed clockwise circulation centered near 03S/65.2E, moving
east-northeastwards at 9/10kt (this circulation doesn't be resolved
by last night quikscat pass). Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is
estimated at 1008 hPa and associated winds are of the order of
10/15kt. Environment is unfavorable with moderate to rather strong
north-northeasterly vertical windshear, a neutral to weak upper
level divergence and a lack of significant low level inflows.
-2- Tropical Depression Nr 02-2005/2006 :
Deep convection has consolidated last night but its intensity
remains cyclic and fluctuating.
However it presents a beginning of curved band pattern organisation
(T=Ci=2.5-).
Minimum Sea Level Pressure is estimated at 998 hPa and center is
located at 0900UTC near 10.7S/82.1E.
Geographics winds repartition remains non-symetric (cf 0053UTC
quikscat pass) with winds near the center up to 30kt , locally
reaching 35/40kt in the southern semi-circle within 360 km radius
of the center due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high
pressures.
Environment is favorable with weak vertical windshear, a good upper
level divergence under the upper level ridge (Cirrus materialize
the northerly good outflow channel) and
SST near 27/28 C.
Low level vorticity is sustained by a good northerly
trans-equatorial flow in the eastern part of the system.
Most of the available NWP models analyse this low.
System is expected tracking southwestwards and deepening slowly in
a first time and then westwards at medium range in a less
energetics environment, west of 80E and south of 14S (cf depth 26 c
of NOAA). System is expected also weakening within
48 to 72 hours.
Vertical windshear is expected beeing stronger also.
For further information see warnings nr 006/02 and followings.
For the next 24 hours,
development of another tropical depression
is not expected.

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