AWIO20 FMEE 131053
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/10/13 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 02 related to the tropical disturbance nr 02, issued at
0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
-1- An area of convection exists between 05S and 10S, from 61E to
67E. Activity is weak and there is no associated clockwise
circulation.
-2- An area of cycling in spatial coverage and fluctuating
convective activity, moderate to strong, exists north of 15S and
east of 80E.
Exposed east of this area of convection, a low level clockwise
circulation was centred at 0900Z near 7.4S/85.8E.
Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa and winds are
of the order of 20/25 kt, locally reaching 30 kt in the southern
semi-circle.
This low is tracking south-southwestwards at 10 kt.
Easterly vertical windhear has decreased and convection has rebuilt
close to the centre over the last hours.
For further information see warnings nr 003/02 and
followings.
NWP models analyse this low and make it track southwestwards on the
northern edge of the subtropical high pressures. ARP/TROP only
deepens it progressively beyond 24 hours.
For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression is poor but becomes fair beyond.

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