AWIO20 FMEE 081136
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/09/08 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Residual low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) of ex-tropical
disturbance nr 1, associated to very fluctuating and scattered
convection, was located near 11.4S/85.2E at 0900Z.
Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa, and winds are
up to 15/25 kt, locally reaching 30 kt in the southern semi-circle
of the system, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high
pressures.
This low is moving south-southwestwards at 6 knots.
This residual LLCC is forecast to track zonally on the northern
edge of the subtropical high pressures, progressively filling up.
Windshear is weak over the area, but sea surface temperatures are
not high enough to create a favorable environment for
intensification.
Available NWP models analyse this low and make it track
southwestwards over the next 24 hours and westwards beyond,
with a
weak intensity.
For the next 24h, potential for development of a tropical
depression is poor.

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