AWIO20 FMEE 061218
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/09/05 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 005/01 related to the tropical disturbance nr1, issued
at 0600UTC
Next and last warning will be issued at 1200 UTC
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Perturbation Tropicale N 1 :
The system has weakened. Deep convection remains inorganized, in a
strongly northeasterly vertical windsheared environment, with a low
level clockwise circulation partially exposed and very badly
defined. At 10TU, the minimal sea level pressure is estimated at
1004 hPa, and the LLCC is located near 7.8S/84.1E.
South of 10S, the environment is less sheared, but the low level
inflows and SST should be too weak for an intensification of the
system.
Most of the available NWP models analyse this low, keep it at a
weak intensity and make it track southwestwards during the next 48
hours.
Elsewhere, there is no other suspect area.
For the next 24h, potential for development of a tropical
depression is moderate.

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