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WTIO30 FMEE 251241


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2010/10/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 86.2E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 00 UTC: 10.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/10/26 12 UTC: 11.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.6S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 13.1S/81.5E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.7S/79.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED SINCE TWO DAYS BEGAN TO ORGANIZE. IT STILL UNDERGOES
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT IS SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 9 KT. THE
EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS WORSE THAT YESTERDAY, BUT IS GOOD POLARWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY UP TO 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM
COMES NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS, S
ST REMAIN AT ABOUT 27°C AND BEYOND BECOME COOLER. ACCORDING WITH THIS
CONDITIONS, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.