Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO30 FMEE 111222


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/13/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 13 (EX-HUBERT)

2.A POSITION 2010/03/11 AT 1200 UTC :
20.7S / 47.5E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 21.2S/45.3E OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/12 12 UTC: 22.9S/44.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/13 00 UTC: 24.2S/42.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2010/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2010/03/14 00 UTC: 25.7S/40.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2010/03/14 12 UTC: 26.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
UNDER THE MALAGASY HIGHLANDS CONSTRAINT , EX-HUBERT WILL RAPIDLY
DESTRUCTURATE.
STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT EXCEED 20KT TO 25 KT ANYMORE NEAR THE CENTER WITH
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
THERE STILL REACH 25KT LOCALLY 30KT OVER THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE.
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THEREFORE, IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GO OUT OVERSEAS,
WITH A VERY WEAKENED CIRCULATION. IF IT HAPPENS, POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION A
PPEARS TO BE POOR DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS.

LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS BACK
OVERSEA.