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WTIO30 FMEE 110041


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20092010
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 13 (EX-HUBERT)

2.A POSITION 2010/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 48.2E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 075 SE: 090 SO: 075 NO: 055
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 020 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 21.3S/46.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 21.9S/45.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ACCORDING SATELLITE IMAGERY (METEOSAT7, NOAA 18 AND 19 OF 2151Z AND 2238Z
), HUBERT HAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND 21Z NEAR MANANJARY AT THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STATUS AFTER RESUMED A WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE LAST HOURS
.
SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS. THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE. ON LATE
FRIDAY, AVAILABLE 12Z NWP MODELS MAKE A REMNANT LOW MOVED BACK OVER WATER
OFF THE MALAGASY SO
UTHWESTERN COAST (TULEAR AREA). IF IT HAPPENS, POTENTIAL FOR
REINTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE POOR DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.