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WTIO30 FMEE 101840


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (HUBERT)

2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 48.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 070
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 21.4S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 21.5S/46.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2010/03/12 06 UTC: 22.4S/44.4E DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0-; CI=4.0-.

HUBERT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROCHES MALAGASY EASTERN COAST !
SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT LESS THAN 30 KM OF MANANJARY CITY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOW AN IMPROVING CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE THAN 1° AROUND LLCC.
1608Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE FEATURES ON 91 GHZ CHANNEL WITH IMPROVING
ORGANISATION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MW IMAGERY FROM AQUA AND TRMM.

ON THIS BASIS, FT IS UPGRADED TO 4.0- FOR THIS ADVISORY (DVORAK
CONSTRAINT AT +0.5 IN 6 HOURS FOR FT BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FOR A SMALL SYSTEM)

MSLP REMAINS ADJUSTED HIGHER THAN NORMAL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE (SET TO 1013 HPA).

LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS NEAR MANANJARY AS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTSOUTHWEST. AFTER LANDFALL RAPID
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAINS OF MALAGASY