Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO30 FMEE 100025


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2010/03/10 AT 0000 UTC :
20.3S / 50.1E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 12 UTC: 20.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/11 00 UTC: 20.4S/48.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 20.2S/48.1E OVERLAND.
48H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 19.9S/47.2E OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5-; CI=2.5-
CONVECTION REMAINS ALWAYS QUITE FLUCTUATING, BUT SEEMS TO ORGANISE INTO
CURVED BAND PATTERN.
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NOW GENERALLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE
MALAGASY EASTERN COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWINDS INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
SYSTEM SHOULD GO ON TRACKING WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS
OVER THE MALAGASY COAST.