Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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WTIO30 FMEE 261315 CCA

*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/16/20092010
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (JOEL)

2.A POSITION 2010/05/26 AT 1200 UTC :
25.5S / 43.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 070 NO: 060
50 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/05/27 00 UTC: 25.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2010/05/27 12 UTC: 26.1S/44.8E, MAX WIND=045KT , SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2010/05/28 00 UTC: 26.3S/45.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
48H: 2010/05/28 12 UTC: 26.7S/45.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , FILLING UP.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE HAS DEVELOPPED VERY RAPIDLY TO REACH NAMING
STAGE. CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDED EYE PATTERN.
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND
HIGH ENVIRONNENTAL PRESSURES.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SO DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN OVER SEAS ABOUT
24-25 DEGRES BEFORE THE INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEYOND.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS RIDGE LOCATE IN THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SYSTEM.