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WTIO30 FMEE 091228


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2010/03/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 50.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST
)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/10 00 UTC: 20.0S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2010/03/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/03/11 12 UTC: 19.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2010/03/12 00 UTC: 19.4S/46.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0; CI=2.0
SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BANDS FEATURE SINCE 0900Z. IT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 200 KM FROM THE MALAGASY EASTERN COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWINDS INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY (OR SLOW
SOUTHWARDS DRIFT), THEN KEEP ON TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS OVER THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN MANANJARY AND
TOAMASINA.