Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

WTIO30 FMEE 090641


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2010/03/09 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 50.9E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/03/09 18 UTC: 20.0S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/03/10 06 UTC: 20.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/03/10 18 UTC: 19.6S/49.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/03/11 06 UTC: 18.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2010/03/11 18 UTC: 17.5S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-; CI=2.0-
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A VISIBLE CDO SINCE
AROUND 0300Z. IT IS QUASI STATIONARY BUT HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE MALAGASY
EASTERN COAST.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD WITH
IMPROVED LOW LEVELS TRADEWARD INFLOW AND NO WINDSHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY (OR SLOW
SOUTHWARDS DRIFT), THEN KEEP ON TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW AND MID LEVELS HIGHS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS OVER THE MALAGASY COAST.