Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/01 AT 1200 UTC : 30.0S / 49.0E (THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 600 SO: 500 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 30.8S/48.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 31.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 32.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/03 12 UTC: 32.3S/48.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/03/04 00 UTC: 32.6S/48.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/04 12 UTC: 33.2S/47.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0. CI=4.0+ GAMEDE IS LOSING ITS STRUCTURE RAPIDLY UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MODERATE INCREASING, ARRIVING ON COOLER WATER. THE CENTER IS NOW COMPLETLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. GAMEDE SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER SEA (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT LESS THAN 26 DEGRES CELSIUS) SOUTH OF 31 SOUTH.