Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/28 AT 1200 UTC : 25.3S / 50.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/01 00 UTC: 27.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/03/01 12 UTC: 28.8S/48.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/02 00 UTC: 29.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/03/02 12 UTC: 29.6S/47.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/03 00 UTC: 29.7S/46.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/03 12 UTC: 29.9S/45.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- ; CI=4.5- LAST METEOSAT7 IMAGERY IN VISIBLE CHANNEL SHOWS A REBUILDING EYE EMBRYO, WHAT IS CONFIRMED BY ENHANCED INFRARED CHANNEL WHICH REVEALS AN UNDER CONSTRUCTION EYEWALL MORE CLOSER FROM THE CENTER (CIRCULAR COLDER OVERSHOOT WITHIN 25 TO 30 KM RADIUS OF THE CENTER). THERE IS UNLUCKILY NO RECENT MIWROWAVE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS FACT. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, "GAMEDE" ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY ALONG ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION, THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS IMPORTANT AND A LARGE PERIPHERICAL BAND UP TO 13S AND ESTA OF 57E AND THEN ALONG 12S AXIS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE. GAMEDE SOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINKED A WEAKNESS IN HIGHS BELT, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING RATHER QUICK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE MORE WESTWARDS AND SLOW DOWN IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES SOUTHWESTWARD.