Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 1800 UTC : 23.3S / 37.0E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.2S/35.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.6S/34.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 19.0S/33.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=5.5 EYE HAS DISAPPEARED OVER THE LAST HOURS ON THE MET7 SAT IMAGERY, AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME WARMER. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH-AFRICA, "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN VILANCULOS AND BEIRA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS MAY AFFECT INHAMBANE AND SOFALA PROVINCES.