Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.8S / 38.1E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 22.5S/36.8E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 21.3S/35.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 19.4S/34.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 17.7S/33.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=5.5+ DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COOLING OF THE "FAVIO" CORE, WITH A SLIGHTLY ERODED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT (WINDSAT 21/0321 TO BE COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S TRMM 20/2100Z). NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST IMAGES DEPICTS AN OPPOSITE TENDANCY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE. "FAVIO" IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH-AFRICA, "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN VILANKULO AND BEIRA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS MAY AFFECT INHAMBANE AND SOFALA PROVINCES.