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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8S / 43.7E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.3S/41.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 24.7S/39.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 24.2S/37.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 22.4S/36.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 20.0S/35.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 18.4S/34.1E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED INTENSIFYING WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS BETWEEN 1900UTC AND 2200UTC A CIRCULAR DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE ROUND EYE. MICROWAVE TRMM AT 2019UTC CONFIMS THIS STRUCTURE.
METEOSAT7 AND METEOSAT SECOND GENERATION LOCATE THE EYE CENTER MORE SOUTHERN THAN IT IS COMPARED TO NOAA17 AT 1921UTC AND NOAA18 AT 2224UTC, PROBABLY DUE TO PARALAXE EFFECT.
SINCE 2230UTC, DEEP CONVECTION PATTERN IS LESS SYMETRIC.
FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE AND THEN TO RECURVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECASTED BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ON THURSDAY.