Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/16 AT 0000 UTC : 21.3S / 60.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/16 12 UTC: 23.1S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 24.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 25.3S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 25.5S/51.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 25.9S/49.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 26.1S/47.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DESPITE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE-, THE SYSTEM BARELY INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER MONSOON FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THIS COULD EXPLAIN WHY FAVIO DOES NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. SINCE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED, ORGANIZING INTO CDO OVER THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. NWP SIAGREE WITH INTENSIFICATION, BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.