Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 69.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/13 18 UTC: 13.1S/68.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/14 06 UTC: 14.1S/67.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/14 18 UTC: 15.4S/65.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 16.9S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 18.2S/61.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 19.2S/60.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 THE ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FLARING AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. LLCC IS VERY APPROXIMATELY LOCATED THANKS TO QUIKSCAT SWAT AND MICROWAVE SSMI F14 AT 0053UTC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST NEAR 29°C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ; NEVERTHELESS, THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTMUM (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND FLOW) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.