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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/13/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2006/04/12 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 90.0E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/04/13 06 UTC: 13.5S/88.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/04/13 18 UTC: 13.8S/87.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/04/14 06 UTC: 14.1S/86.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/04/14 18 UTC: 14.5S/85.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/04/15 06 UTC: 14.9S/84.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/04/15 18 UTC: 15.3S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION IS POORLY SPREAD AND RATHER WARM, BUT ITS ORGANIZATION IS LICHTLY IMPROVING ABOVE THE LLCC.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER FAVORABLE BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK, MAINLY DUE TO A BADLY DEFINED MOONSON FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART.