«Session_PROG»

International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction

PROGRAMME

Monday, 13^th May

0800		Registration - Coffee
0840		Opening Ceremony
		Introduction : *George Boer*, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
		Welcome : *Philippe Bougeault*, Directeur du CNRM, Météo-France

Session S1		Sources and levels of predictability
		*Chair : Laurent Terray*
0900	1.1	Is AMOC more predictable than North Atlantic heat content ? - Invited *Grant* *Branstator,* NCAR, Haiyan Teng
0930	1.2	Decadal predictability and forecast skill *George* *Boer,* Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, V. V. Kharin and W. J. Merryfield
0950	1.3	Influence of volcanic eruptions on bi-decadal variability of the North Atlantic in historical, initialised simulations and observations *Didier* *Swingedouw,* CNRS, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi
1010	1.4	The origins of large-scale North Atlantic ocean circulation changes in the late 20th century: implications for decadal prediction *Stephen* *Yeager,* NCAR, Gokhan Danabasoglu

1030 - 1110		P1 Posters + Coffee break
			*Chair : Ed Hawkins*
1110	1.5	Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade,* The Met Office Hadley Centre, D. M. Smith, L. Hermanson, R. Eade, B. B. B. Booth*
1130	1.6	Attribution of the 2001-2010 global temperature plateau *Virginie* *Guemas,* Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo, Muhammad Asif
1150	1.7	Land surface contribution to seasonal climate predictability: growing evidence but unfulfilled expectations *Hervé* *Douville,* Météo-France, Yannick Peings, Eric Brun
1210	1.8	Investigating the variations in the predictability of the South African provincial seasonal climates through HadRM3P ensemble spreads *Kamoru A.* *Lawal,* Climate System Analysis Group, Dept. of Env. and Geo. Science, Univ. of Cape Town, Daithi A Stone and Babatunde J Abiodun

1230 - 1400		P1 Posters + Lunch break

Session S1			Sources and levels of predictability (continued)

1400	1.9	Seasonal to decadal predictability in mid and high northern latitudes *Torben* *Koenigk,* SMHI, Christof König Beatty, Mihaela Caian, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Klaus Wyser
1420	1.10	Regional variability in the potential predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual time scales *Jonathan* *Day,* University of Reading, Steffen Tietsche, Ed Hawkins, Dan Hodson, Sarah Keeley

Session S2		Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias
				*Chair : Franco Molteni*
1440	2.1	A coupled ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction in Australia and its comparison with other state-of-the-art reanalyses - Invited *Oscar* *Alves,* Bureau of Meteorology, Yonghong Yin, Li Shi, Debbie Hudson, Patricia Okely and Harry Hendon
1510	2.2	Ensemble Data Assimilation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction *Zhengyu* *Liu,* University of Wisconsin, Shu Wu, Shaoqing Zhang, Yun Liu, Feiyu Lu, Xinyao Rong

1530 - 1600		P1 Posters + Coffee break

1600	2.3	Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM : a twin experiment *François* *Counillon,* NERSC/BCCR, I. Bethke, N . Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino and F. Zheng
1620	2.4	Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 *Bohua* *Huang,* Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies and George Mason Univeristy, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, James L. Kinter III, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Rong-Hua Zhang, and Zeng-Zhen Hu
1640	2.5	An Assessment of Hindcast-Based Ocean Initial Conditions for Climate Prediction Experiments *Gokhan* *Danabasoglu,* NCAR, Steve Yeager
1700	2.6	A comparison between ensemble hindcasts obtained from oceanic and from atmospheric perturbations in the MPI-ESM climate model. *Camille* *Marini,* Institut für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg, Armin Koehl, Detlef Stammer

1730 - 1900

Icebreaker

Tuesday, 14^th May

Session 2		Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias (continued)
			*Chair : William Merryfield*
0850	2.7		Impact of initial conditions with respect to external forcing in the decadal predictions: a sensitivity experiment *Susanna* *Corti,* ISAC-CNR & ECMWF, Tim Palmer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer, Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters, Sybren Drijfhout, Dough Smith, Nick Dunstone, Holger Pohlmann, Jürgen Kröger, Jin-Song von Storch
0910	2.8		Multiyear climate predictions using two initialisation strategies *Wilco* *Hazeleger,* Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), V. Guemas, B. Wouters, S. Corti, I. Andreu-Burillio, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, K. Wyser, M. Caian, R. Haarsma
0930	2.9		Climate Drift in CCSM4 Decadal Prediction Experiment *Haiyan Teng, NCAR, Grant Branstator, Gerald Meehl, Alicia Karspeck, Steve Yeager*
0950	2.10		The interpretation of biases in decadal climate predictions Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Buwen Dong, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton
1010	2.11		Analysis of model drift in a climate forecast system used for decadal predictions *Emilia* *Sanchez-Gomez,* CERFACS/CNRS, Christophe Cassou, Elodie Fernandez

1030 - 1110					P1 Posters + Coffee break


Session S3			Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results
			*Chair : Eric Guilyardi*
1110	3.1		An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4 in the context of EUROSIP - Invited *Tim* *Stockdale,* ECMWF
1140	3.2		Long Range Predictability of the NAO and Atlantic Winter Weather *Adam* *Scaife,* Met Office Hadley Centre, A.Arribas, E.Blockley, A.Brookshaw, R.T.Clark, N.Dunstone, R.Eade, D.Fereday, C.K.Folland, M.Gordon, L.Hermanson, J.R.Knight, C.MachLachlan, A.Maidens, M.Martin, A.K.Peterson, D.Smith, M.Vellinga, E.Wallace and A.Williams
1200	3.3		Improvement in winter seasonal predictability by including a stratospheric description in the forecast model *Michel* *Déqué,* Météo-France, Jean-François Guérémy, David Saint-Martin
1220	3.4		Climate and seasonal forecast quality impact of increased horizontal ocean resolution *Isabel* *Andreu-Burillo,* IC3/CFU, F. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, M. Asif

1240 - 1400				P1 Posters + Lunch break
						*Chair : Wilco Hazeleger*
1400	3.5		An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal forecasts *Yoo-Geun* *Ham,* Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Siegfried Schubert, and Michele M. Rienecker
1420	3.6		Towards a Seasonal Prediction System using MPI-ESM *Daniela* *Domeisen,* University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Kristina Fröhlich, Wolfgang Müller, Michael Botzet, Holger Pohlmann, Luis Kornblueh, Steffen Tietsche, Dirk Notz, Robert Piontek, Johanna Baehr
1440	3.7		Predictability of ENSO and IOD and their global teleconnections *Swadhin* *Behera,* JAMSTEC, Takeshi Doi, Yukio Masumoto, and Toshio Yamagata
1500	3.8		Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and predictability *Emily* *Becker,* Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/NWS/NCEP), Huug van den Dool, Malaquias Pena

1520 - 1600			P1 Posters + Coffee break
			*Chair : Edwin Schneider*
1600	3.9		Land and atmosphere initial states influence surface temperature forecast in dynamical seasonal predictions *Stefano* *Materia,* Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Andrea Borrelli, Alessio Bellucci, Silvio Gualdi
1620	3.10		Impact of snow initialization in coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasts *Yvan* *Orsolini,* Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), R. Senan, A. Carrasco, G. Balsamo, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, and R.E. Benestad
1640	3.11		Seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice with CNRM-CM5.1 *Matthieu* *Chevallier,* CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, CNRS, David Salas y Mélia, Virginie Guémas, Agathe Germe, Michel Déqué, Aurore Voldoire
1700	3.12		The North American Multi-Model Ensemble Intraseasonal to Interannual Prediction System *Ben* *Kirtman,* University of Miami

Wednesday, 15^th May

Session S4		Decadal forecast systems and results
		*Chair : Ben Kirtman*
0840	4.1	Regional forecast quality of the CMIP5 multi-model decadal climate predictions - Invited *Francisco* *Doblas-Reyes,* ICREA and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano), V. Guémas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L.R.L. Rodrigues, G.J. van Oldenborgh
0910	4.2	Improved predictions of global climate in the decade ahead using a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System *Jeff* *Knight,* Met Office Hadley Centre, Martin Andrews, Doug Smith, Alberto Arribas, Nick Dunstone, Craig Maclachlan, Drew Peterson, Adam Scaife, and Andrew Williams
0930	4.3	Results from the CFSv2 CMIP5 Decadal Forecasts *Edwin* *Schneider,* George Mason University and COLA,
0950	4.4	Decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2 *Bin* *Wang,* Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mimi Liu,Yongqiang Yu, Lijuan Li
1010	4.5	Added-value from initialization in skilful predictions of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability *Javier* *Garcia-Serrano,* Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN-IPSL), UPMC, Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

1030 - 1110		P2 Posters + Coffee break
		*Chair : Wolfgang Müller*
1110	4.6	Skillful predictions of Atlantic multi-year to decadal variability in the GFDL forecast system *Rym* *Msadek,* GFDL/NOAA, Gabriel Vecchi, Tom Delworth, Tony Rosati, Shaoqing Zhang
1130	4.7	Multiyear predictions of the North Atlantic variability - the impact of increased ocean model resolution *Daniela* *Matei,* Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Johann Jungclaus, Wolfgang Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Ketan Kulkarni, Helmuth Haak, Jochem Marotzke
1150	4.8	Predictability of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s and its climate impacts *Jon* *Robson,* NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Rowan Sutton and Doug Smith
1210	4.9	Is Atlantic multi-decadal variability about to change phase ? *Leon* *Hermanson,* Met Office, Martin Andrews, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Jeff Knight, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith

1230 - 1400			P2 Posters + Lunch break

1400	4.10		Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts using a statistical index *Louis-Philippe* *Caron,* Meteorology Department, Stockholm University, Colin G. Jones, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
1420	4.11		Decadal prediction for the Arctic *Klaus* *Wyser,* Rossby Centre - SMHI, Mihaela Caian, Torben Königk, Colin Jones

Session S5			Forecast verification, calibration and combination
			*Chair : Susanna Corti*
1440	5.1		Assessing skill from retrospective forecasts - Invited *Doug* *Smith,* Met Office, Rosie Eade, Nick Dunstone, Leon Hermanson, Holger Pohlmann, Adam Scaife
1510	5.2		Reliability of seasonal-to-decadal forecasts from a seamless prediction perspective *Antje* *Weisheimer,* ECMWF & University of Oxford, Susanna Corti


1530 - 1600				P2 Posters + Coffee break

1600	5.3		Probabilistic verification of decadal CMIP5 hindcast experiments *Sophie* *Stolzenberger,* Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, R. Glowienka-Hense, A. Hense, T. Spangehl, A. Mazurkiewicz, M. Schröder, R. Hollmann, F. Kaspar
1620	5.4		Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions *Bert* *Van Schaeybroeck,* Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Stéphane Vannitsem
1640		5.5		Variation in the reliability of ensemble predictions of SSTs from seasonal to decadal timescales Chun Kit Ho, Ed Hawkins,* NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Len Shaffrey, Jochen Broecker, Leon Hermanson, James Murphy, Doug Smith*
1700	5.6		An empirical-dynamical South America seasonal precipitation prediction system *Caio* *Coelho,* Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)

2000				Gala dinner

Thursday, 16^th May

Session S6		Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications
		*Chair : Paul Kushner*
0840	6.1	How can Seasonal to Decadal forecasts be useful to the power sector ? - Invited *Laurent* *Dubus,* EDF R&D, Julien NAJAC, Sylvie PAREY
0910	6.2	Is there value in very long lead dynamical seasonal precipitation forecasts ? *William Merryfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin*
0930	6.3	Seasonal Forecast in France and application to hydrology Stéphanie Singla, Jean-Pierre Céron,* Direction de la Climatologie, Météo-France, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets and J.-P.Vidal*
0950	6.4	Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onset *Xing* *Yuan,* Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Eric F. Wood
1010	6.5	An Integrated Seasonal Flood Outlook for Agriculture Risk Management *SHM* *Fakhruddin,* Asian Institute of Technology, Prof. Dr. M.S. Babel, Prof. Dr. Francesco Ballio

1020 - 1110		P2 Posters + Coffee break
		*Chair : Rym Msadek*
1110	6.6	Seasonal Climatic and Hydrologic Modeling and Prediction in the Yellow River Basin in China *Shourong* *Wang,* China Meteorological Administration, Yiping YAO, Youye Liang, Ruby Leung
1130	6.7	Decadal predictions for Europe: Regional downscaling of the MiKlip decadal experiments *Hendrik* *Feldmann,* Karlsruhe Insititute of Technology (KIT), Sebastian Mieruch, Marianne Uhlig, Claus-Jürgen Lenz, Kevin Sieck, Christoph Kottmeier
1150	6.8	Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa *Christopher Lennard,* University of Cape Town
1210	6.9	Stochastic simulation as an alternative (or supplement) to decadal predictions *Arthur* *Greene,* International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Lisa Goddard

1230 - 1400			P2 Posters + Lunch break


Session S7			Summaries/discussion Chair : George Boer

1400			Sources and levels of predictability: A. Scaife/G. Branstator
1420			Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias: M. Ishii/O. Alves
1440			Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results: M. Déqué/T. Stockdale
1500			Decadal forecast systems and results: C. Cassou/F. Doblas-Reyes
1520			Forecast verification, calibration and combination: C. Coelho/D. Smith
1540			Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications: H. Douville/L. Dubus

1600			Wrap up

POSTER PROGRAMME P1


	Monday 13^th May & Tuesday 14^th May

	S1 Sources and levels of predictability S2 Assimilation, initialization,ensemble generation and bias S3 Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results

Session S1

Sources and levels of predictability

1 S1	Previsibility of the North Atlantic multidecadal internal variability in the CNRM-CM5 model *Yohan* *Ruprich-Robert,* Cerfacs, Christophe Cassou
2 S1	Seasonal forecasts of the exceptional boreal winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 David Fereday, Jeff Knight,* Met Office Hadley Centre, Anna Maidens, Adam Scaife, Alberto Arribas, Craig MacLachlan, Drew Peterson*
3 S1	Representation and Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Snow Trends with Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations Lawrence Mudryk, Paul Kushner,* Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Chris Derksen*
4 S1	Response of the CNRM-CM5 coupled model to an enhanced Greenland ice melting. *Mathieu* *Hamon,* CERFACS, Philippe Rogel
6 S1	Enhanced ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific due to greenhouse gas forcing *S-Y Simon* *Wang,* Utah Climate Center/Utah State University, Michelle L’Heureux, Jin-Ho Yoon
8 S1	Control of decadal and bidecadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific by the off-equatorial South Pacific Ocean *Hiroaki* *Tatebe,* Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masahide Kimoto, Hiroyasu Hasumi
9 S1	Possible remote influence on pacific decadal variability and predictability *Takashi* *Mochizuki,* Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Masahiro Watanabe, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii
10 S1	Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and its Relationships with the Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction *Yunyun* *Liu,* Beijing Climate Center, Ding Yihui, Gao Hui, Li Weijing
11 S1	An Enhanced Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean on the South Asia High after the Late 1970s *Gang* *Huang,* Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xia Qu
12 S1	Decadal prediction of sea level in the western North Pacific *Tamaki* *Yasuda,* Meteorological Research Institute, Yukimasa Adachi, Masayoshi Ishii, Seiji Yukimoto
13 S1	Decadal forecasting derived from the mysterious coherence between Pacific climate oscillations and the Great Salt Lake level *Simon* *Wang,* Utah Climate Center/Utah State University, Robert Gillies
14 S1	The Multidecadal component of the Western Mediterranean Variability and its global connections. *Maria J.* *OrtizBevia,* University of Alcala, Francisco J. Alvarez-García, Antonio Ruiz de Elvira
15 S1	Modelled and observed teleconnections between Indo-Pacific rainfall and extra-tropical flow regimes *Franco* *Molteni,* ECMWF, Susanna Corti, Tim Stockdale, David Straus
16 S1	Understanding Prediction Skill of Seasonal Mean Precipitation over the Tropics *Mingyue Chen, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang*
17 S1	Influence of spring-time Eurasian-Himalayan snow on the evolution of the Indian summer monsoon *Retish* *Senan,* Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Yvan J. Orsolini, Frode Stordal
18 S1	A possible factor for better representation of Asian summer monsoon *Shoji* *Hirahara,* Japan Meteorological Agency, Yuhei Takaya, Satoko Matsueda

Session S2

Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias

22 S2	Improving Coupled Climate Model using EnKF for Parameter Optimization *Zhengyu* *Liu,* University of Wisconsin-Madison, Yun Liu, Xingrong Wu, Xuefeng, Zhang, Shaoqing Zhang, Rob Jacob, Shu Wu, Xinyao Rong, Feiyu Lu
23 S2	Towards prediction of climate variability in the Nordic Seas with NorCPM (NorESM+EnKF) *Ingo* *Bethke,* Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Francois Counillon, Mats Bentsen, Laurent Bertino, Tor Eldevik, Noel Keenlyside, Øystein Skagseth
24 S2	Full state ocean initialization using an ensemble Kalman Filter in a coupled climate model *Sebastian* *Brune,* Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Lars Nerger, Johanna Baehr
25 S2	Impact of SST initialisation on the ocean subsurface over the period 1949-2000 *Sulagna* *Ray,* LOCEAN/IPSL, Juliette Mignot, Didier Swingedow, Eric Guilyardi
26 S2	Importance of the deep ocean for model bias reduction and oceanic decadal predictability Florian Sevellec, Alexey Fedorov,* Yale University*
27 S2	Understanding coupled model errors in the tropical Pacific using initialised hindcasts and a lead time analysis *Benoît* *Vannière,* Locean-IPSL, Eric Guilyardi, Thomas Tonniazzo, Steve Woolnough
28 S2	Analysing model drift in full-field-initialised seasonal hindcasts *David* *Mulholland,* University of Reading, Keith Haines (University of Reading)
29 S2	Comparing and testing optimal perturbations for decadal climate predictions: do they work ? Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Nick Dunstone, Laure Zanna, Rowan Sutton
30 S2	Initialization of the coupled model MPI-ESM for seasonal predictions *Johanna* *Baehr,* University of Hamburg, Robert Piontek, Kristina Fröhlich, Michael Botzet, Wolfgang Müller
31 S2	An anomaly transform method based on total energy and ocean heat content norms for generating ocean dynamics disturbances for decadal climate forecasts *Vanya* *Romanova,* Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Bonn, Andreas Hense
32 S2	Towards an ensemble prediction system for decadal climate forecasts - first results on variation of initial conditions *Claus-Juergen* *Lenz,* Deutscher Wetterdienst, Barbara Frueh, Fatemeh Davary Adalatpanah, Clementine Dalelane, Paul Becker
33 S2	Comparison of initialisation methods in global dynamic decadal climate forecasts *Danila* *Volpi,* Institut Català de Ciències de Clima (IC3), Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas
34 S2	Improving the anomaly initialisation for decadal predictions *Mihaela* *Caian,* SMHI, Klaus Wyser, Louis-Philippe Caron, Colin Jones
35 S2	A comparison of initialization strategies for decadal predictions *Iuliia* *Polkova,* Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Iuliia Polkova, Armin Koehl, Detlef Stammer
36 S2	Impact of initialization and model resolution on decadal climate predictions with the MiKlip system *Holger* *Pohlmann,* Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Wolfgang Müller, Ketan Kulkarni, Jochem Marotzke
37 S2	Testing different initialization strategies with surface variables for decadal projections in a perfect model framework *Jérôme* *Servonnat,* LOCEAN - LSCE- IPSL, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi, Didier Swingedouw, Roland Seferian, Sonia Labetoulle
38 S2	Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity *Violette* *Zunz,* Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaître, Hugues Goosse, Svetlana Dubinkina
39 S2	Use of a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model in the ECMWF seasonal forecast system and the impact of different initialisation methods. *Sarah* *Keeley,* ECMWF, Yongming Tang, Magdalena Balmaseda, Kristian Mogensen, Peter Janssen
40 S2	Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions *Virginie Guemas, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) / CNRM, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Kristian Mogensen, Yongming Tang, Sarah Keeley*
41 S2	Land surface data assimilation in a climate context *Bodo* *Ahrens,* Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Julian Tödter
42 S2	Extension of the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological reanalysis on the entire 20th century *Marie* *Minvielle,* Direction de la climatologie, Météo-France, Jean-Pierre Céron, Christian Page, François Besson

Session S3

Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results

43 S3	An overview of the Climate Prediction Task Force *Annarita* *Mariotti,* NOAA Climate Program Office, Ben Kirtman, Matt Newman, Scott Weaver, Vasu Misra
44 S3	Seasonal forecasts with the atmospheric and coupled model at Hydrometcentre of Russia *Mikhail* *Tolstykh,* Inst. of Numerical Mathematics/RAS, and Hydrometcentre of Russia, Nikolay Diansky, Anatoly Gusev, Dmitry Kiktev, Radomir Zaripov
45 S3	The performance of BCC_CSM1.1(m) on seasonal forecast *Xiaoyun* *Liang,* Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Tongwen Wu, Xiangwen Liu, Yanjie Cheng, and Qiaoping Li
46 S3	Applications of BCC_AGCM2.2 Model in Extended Range Forecast *Qiaoping* *Li,* Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Tongwen Wu, Xiangwen Liu, Xiaoyun Liang
47 S3	An assessment of ENSO predictability barrier with seasonal feedback models Maria J. OrtizBevia, Miguel Tasambay,* University of Alcala, Instituto Politecnico de Riobamba, F. Alvarez-Garcia*
49 S3	Assessment of CFS forecast skill over the Pacific Islands - A processes based study *Hanna* *Annamalai,* IPRC/SOEST, University of Hawaii, Arun Kumar, Jan Hafner and Hui Wang
50 S3	Seasonal forecast skill of Indian summer monsoon in the ENSEMBLES coupled models *C.K* *Unnikrishnan,* National Atmospheric Research Laboratory Gadanki, M Rajeevan and S Vijaya Bhaskara Rao
51 S3	Why was the prediction of the 2012 positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode difficult ? *Takeshi* *Doi,* JAMSTEC, Wataru Sasaki, Swadhin K. Behera, Yukio Masumoto, and Toshio Yamagata
52 S3	Predictability of the subtropical dipole modes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model *Chaoxia* *Yuan,* Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Tomoki Tozuka, Jing-Jia Luo, and Toshio Yamagata
53 S3	An assessment of the representation of N. Atlantic blocking and jet-stream variability in a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system. *Panos* *Athanasiadis,* Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Stefano Materia and Andrea Borrelli.
55 S3	Model uncertainty in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4 *Antje* *Weisheimer,* ECMWF & University of Oxford,
56 S3	A "stochastic dynamics" method for ensemble seasonal forecasts with the CNRM-CM5.1 GCM *Lauriane* *Batté,* Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Michel Déqué
57 S3	Skill of Persistence Forecasts of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, Area and Extent on Monthly to Seasonal Time-Scales *Adrienne* *Tivy,* National Research Council


	Wednesday 15^th May & Thursday 16^th May

	S4 Decadal forecast systems and results S5 Forecast verification, calibration and combination S6 Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications

Session S4		Decadal forecast systems and results

58 S4	Statistical decadal predictions for SSTs: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions Chun Kit Ho, Ed Hawkins,* NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Len Shaffrey, Fiona Underwood*
59 S4	Seasonal-to-decadal prediction studies under the SOUSEI program *Masaoshi* *Ishii,* Meteorological Research Institute, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Yukio Tanaka, and Masahide Kimoto
60 S4	Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system *Wolfgang* *Müller,* Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Johanna Baehr, Helmuth Haak, Johann Jungclaus, Jürgen Kröger, Daniela Matei, Dirk Notz, Holger Pohlmann, Jin-Song von Storch and Jochem Marotzke
62 S4	Understanding of processes in Decadal Climate Variability *Kerstin* *Prömmel,* Freie Universität Berlin, Institut or Meteorology, Ulrich Cubasch
63 S4	Decadal predictions with the HiGEM climate model Len Shaffrey, Jon Robson,* NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Dave Stevens, Ed Hawkins, Chun-Kit Ho, Dan Hodson, Grenville Lister, Rowan Sutton*
64 S4	Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability of precipitation over Southeastern South America in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts *Paula* *Gonzalez,* IRI/Columbia University, Lisa Goddard
65 S4	Decadal prediction in the Mediterranean region *Virginie* *Guemas,* Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Javier García-Serrano, Annarita Mariotti, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
66 S4	Assessing the decadal predictability of Arctic sea ice in CNRM-CM5.1 : A regional study *Agathe* *Germe,* Centre national de Recherche Météorologique/Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphere Météorologique, Météo-France, Matthieu Chevallier, David Salas y Melia, and Emilia Sanchez-Gomez
67 S4	S2D prediction for Nepal - where all models failed *Robert* *Gillies,* Utah Climate Center, S-Y Simon Wang, Changrae Cho

Session S5

Forecast verification, calibration and combination

68 S5	Reliability of decadal predictions *Susanna* *Corti,* ISAC-CNR & ECMWF , Antje Weisheimer, Tim Palmer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Linus Magnusson
69 S5	Assessment of the COMBINE multimodel predictive skill *Alessio* *Bellucci,* CMCC, Italy
70 S5	On the impact of ensemble size on seasonal forecast skill *Antje* *Weisheimer,* ECMWF & University of Oxford, Susanna Corti, Laura Ferranti
71 S5	Improving the Prediction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: New Approaches Ke Fan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , Ying lium huopo Chen
72 S5	Improvement of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction skills over East Asian summer monsoon region using a climate filter concept *Doo Young* *Lee,* APEC Climate Center, Joong-Bae Ahn, Karumuri Ashok
73 S5	Seasonal prediction of the intraseasonal variability of the West African summer monsoon precipitation *Luis Ricardo* *Lage Rodrigues,* Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3), Javier Garcia-Serrano, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
75 S5	Evaluation of decadal hindcasts using satellite simulators *Thomas* *Spangehl,* Deutscher Wetterdienst, Alex Mazurkiewicz, Marc Schröder

Session S6

Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications

77 S6	Dynamical seasonal forecasting for Australian applications *Oscar* *Alves,* Bureau of Meteorology
78 S6	Simple multiple linear regression model used to predict seasonal ice condition in the Canadian arctic. *André* *April,* Canadian Ice service branch, Environnement Canada
79 S6	Long-range (30-day) prediction of winter persistent inversions in the Intermountain West, United States *Robert* *Gillies,* Utah Climate Center, Simon Wang
80 S6	Self-learning fuzzy-neural seasonal predictive model for Northern Europe *Oleg* *Pokrovsky,* Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet,
81 S6	Seasonal Monsoon rainfall prediction over the South Asian Region by Dynamical Downscaling *Mohan Kumar* *Das,* SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, S. Das, India, Md. M. Rahman
82 S6	Statistical Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall in India Vector Auto Regression (VAR) & Variance Decomposition (VDC) Model *Jyotish Prakash* *Basu,* West Bengal State University,
83 S6	Extended range forecast for diurnal rainfall episodes in Taiwan using the CFS *S-Y Simon* *Wang,* Utah Climate Center/Utah State University, H.-H. Chia, Robert Gillies
84 S6	Decadal predictability of West African monsoon rainfall applying the regional climate model REMO forced by ECHAM5 and MPI-ESM *Andreas* *Paxian,* Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Wuerzburg, Heiko Paeth
87 S6	Regional downscaling to improve climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa - ClimAfrica *Christopher* *Lennard,* University of Cape Town
88 S6	Advantages of using composite analysis for predicting seasonal rainfall in the Andean and Caribbean natural regions of Colombia by impact of ENSO phenomenon *Inés Concepción* *Sánchez Rodríguez,* Weather & Climate Group-Office of Meteorology Institute of Hydrology,Meteorology and Environmental Studies of Colombia (IDEAM, for acronym in spanish),
89 S6	Assessing Vulnerabilities to Regional Climate Change: A Case Study of Tokyo, Japan *Yingjiu Bai, Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Ikuyo Kaneko, Hikaru Kobayashi, Kazuo Kurihara, Izuru Takayabu, Hidetaka Sasaki and Akihiko Murata*
91 S6	Evaluating the utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for watershed application in South Korea *Thanh* *Le,* Dept. of Geology, Lund University, Deg-Hyo Bae
93 S6	Rainfall variability over West Africa from global and regional models from seasonal to decadal timescales with multi-model approaches *Coumba* *Niang*, LPAO-SF/ESP/Dakar C. A. D. University
95 S6	Marine records of the coast of Africa : a case of mechanisms and consequences of past and present climate changes over West Africa coast and its effect on adaptation. *Okuku* *Ediang,* Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Ediang Aniekan Archibong

		Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
	Registration + Coffee	Bus at 0730	Bus at 0810	Bus at 0800	Bus at 0800
0840	0840-0850	Introduction		S4 – 4.1 Francisco Doblas-Reyes	S6 – 6.1 Laurent Dubus
	0850-0900		2.7 Susanna Corti
	0900-0910	S1 - 1.1 G. Branstator
	0910-0920		2.8 Wilco Hazeleger	4.2 Jeff Knight	6.2 William Merryfield
	0920-0930
	0930-0940	1.2 George Boer	2.9 Haiyan Teng	4.3 Edwin Schneider	6.3 Jean-Pierre Céron
	0940-0950
1000	0950-1000	1.3 Didier Swingedouw	2.10 Ed Hawkins	4.4 Bin Wang	6.4 Xing Yuan
	1000-1010
	1010-1020	1.4 Stephen Yeager	2.11 Emilia Sanchez-Gomez	4.5 Javier Garcia-Serrano	6.5 SHM Fakhruddin
	1020-1030
	1030-1110	P1 Posters + Coffee Break	P1 Posters + Coffee Break	P2 Posters + Coffee Break	P2 Posters + Coffee Break
1100
	1110-1120	1.5 Rosie Eade	S3 – 3.1 Tim Stockdale	4.6 Rym Msadek	6.6 Shourong Wang
	1120-1130
	1130-1140	1.6 Virginie Guemas		4.7 Daniela Matei	6.7 Hendrik Feldmann
	1140-1150		3.2 Adam Scaife
1200	1150-1200	1.7 Hervé Douville		4.8 Jon Robson	6.8 Christopher Lennard
	1200-1210		3.3 Michel Déqué
	1210-1220	1.8 Kamoru A. Lawal		4.9 Leon Hermanson	6.9 Arthur Greene
	1220-1230		3.4 Isabel Andreu-Burillo
	1230-1240	P1 Posters – Lunch Break		P2 Posters – Lunch Break	P2 Posters – Lunch Break 1400 S7 - George Boer
	1240-1400		P1 Posters – Lunch Break
1400	1400-1410	1.9 Torben Koenigk	3.5 Yoo-Geun Ham	4.10 Louis-Philippe Caron	Sources and levels of predictability A. Scaife/G. Branstator
	1410-1420
	1420-1430	1.10 Jonathan Day	3.6 Daniela Domeisen	4.11 Klaus Wyser	Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias M. Ishii/O. Alves
	1430-1440
	1440-1450	S2 – 2.1 Oscar Alves	3.7 Swadhin Behera	S5 – 5.1 Doug Smith	Seasonal-interannual forecast systems & results M. Deque/T. Stockdale
1500	1450-1500
	1500-1510		3.8 Emily Becker		Decadal forecast systems and results C. Cassou/F. Doblas-Reyes
	1510-1520	2.2 Zhengyu Liu		5.2 Antje Weisheimer
	1520-1530		P1 Posters + Coffee Break		Forecast verification, calibration and combination C. Coelho/D. Smith
	1530-1540	P1 Posters + Coffee Break		P2 Posters + Coffee Break
	1540-1150				Targeted predictions, downscaling and appli. H. Douville/L. Dubus
1600	1550-1600
	1600-1610	2.3 François Counillon	3.9 Stefano Materia	5.3 Sophie Stolzenberger	Bus at 1600
	1610-1620
	1620-1630	2.4 Bohua Huang	3.10 Yvan Orsolini	5.4 Bert Van Schaeybroeck
	1630-1640
	1640-1650	2.5 Gokhan Danabasoglu	3.11 Matthieu Chevallier	5.5 Ed Hawkins
1700	1650-1700
	1700-1710	2.6 Camille Marini	3.12 Ben Kirtman	5.6 Caio Coelho
	1710-1720
	1720-1730		Bus at 1730	Bus at 1730
	1730-1900	Icebreaker
	2000-2300	Bus at 1900		Gala Dinner