International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction CIC meetings   home programme presentations committees venue             Monday, 13th May       Session S1 Sources and levels of predictability     09.00 Is AMOC more predictable than North Atlantic heat content ? Grant Branstator, NCAR, Haiyan Teng     09.30 Decadal predictability and forecast skill George Boer, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, V. V. Kharin and W. J. Merryfield     09.50 Influence of volcanic eruptions on bi-decadal variability of the North Atlantic in historical, initialised simulations and observations Didier Swingedouw, CNRS, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi     10.10 The origins of large-scale North Atlantic ocean circulation changes in the late 20th century : implications for decadal prediction Stephen Yeager, NCAR, Gokhan Danabasoglu     11.10 Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, The Met Office Hadley Centre, D. M. Smith, L. Hermanson, R. Eade, B. B. B. Booth     11.30 Attribution of the 2001-2010 global temperature plateau Virginie Guemas, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Isabel Andreu-Burillo, Muhammad Asif     11.50 Land surface contribution to seasonal climate predictability: growing evidence but unfulfilled expectations Hervé Douville, Météo-France, Yannick Peings, Eric Brun     12.10 Investigating the variations in the predictability of the South African provincial seasonal climates through HadRM3P ensemble spreads Kamoru A. Lawal, Climate System Analysis Group, Dept. of Env. and Geo. Science, Univ. of Cape Town, Daithi A Stone and Babatunde J Abiodun     14.00 Seasonal to decadal predictability in mid and high northern latitudes Torben Koenigk, SMHI, Christof König Beatty, Mihaela Caian, Ralf Döscher, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Klaus Wyser     14.20 Regional variability in the potential predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual time scales Jonathan Day, University of Reading, Steffen Tietsche, Ed Hawkins, Dan Hodson, Sarah Keeley       Session S2 Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias     14.40 A coupled ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction in Australia and its comparison with other state-of-the-art reanalyses Oscar Alves, Bureau of Meteorology, Yonghong Yin, Li Shi, Debbie Hudson, Patricia Okely and Harry Hendon     15.10 Ensemble Data Assimilation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models : the Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Zhengyu Liu, University of Wisconsin, Shu Wu, Shaoqing Zhang, Yun Liu, Feiyu Lu, Xinyao Rong     16.00 Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM : a twin experiment François Counillon, NERSC/BCCR, I. Bethke, N . Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino and F. Zheng     16.20 Multiple Ocean Analysis Initialization for Ensemble ENSO Prediction using NCEP CFSv2 Bohua Huang, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies and George Mason Univeristy, Jieshun Zhu, Lawrence Marx, James L. Kinter III, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Rong-Hua Zhang, and Zeng-Zhen Hu     16.40 An Assessment of Hindcast-Based Ocean Initial Conditions for Climate Prediction Experiments Gokhan Danabasoglu, NCAR, Steve Yeager     17.00 A comparison between ensemble hindcasts obtained from oceanic and from atmospheric perturbations in the MPI-ESM climate model Camille Marini, Institut für Meereskunde, Universität Hamburg, Armin Koehl, Detlef Stammer       Tuesday, 14th May       Session S2 Assimilation, initialization, ensemble generation and bias     08.50 Impact of initial conditions with respect to external forcing in the decadal predictions : a sensitivity experiment Susanna Corti, ISAC-CNR & ECMWF, Tim Palmer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer, Wilco Hazeleger, Bert Wouters, Sybren Drijfhout, Dough Smith, Nick Dunstone, Holger Pohlmann, Jürgen Kröger, Jin-Song von Storch     09.10 Multiyear climate predictions using two initialisation strategies Wilco Hazeleger, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), V. Guemas, B. Wouters, S. Corti, I. Andreu-Burillio, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, K. Wyser, M. Caian, R. Haarsma     09.30 Climate Drift in CCSM4 Decadal Prediction Experiment Haiyan Teng, NCAR, Grant Branstator, Gerald Meehl, Alicia Karspeck, Steve Yeager     09.50 The interpretation of biases in decadal climate predictions Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Buwen Dong, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton     10.10 Analysis of model drift in a climate forecast system used for decadal predictions Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, CERFACS/CNRS, Christophe Cassou, Elodie Fernandez       Session S3 Seasonal-interannual forecast systems and results     11.10 An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4 in the context of EUROSIP Tim Stockdale, ECMWF     11.40 Long Range Predictability of the NAO and Atlantic Winter Weather Adam Scaife, Met Office Hadley Centre, A.Arribas, E.Blockley, A.Brookshaw, R.T.Clark, N.Dunstone, R.Eade, D.Fereday, C.K.Folland, M.Gordon, L.Hermanson, J.R.Knight, C.MachLachlan, A.Maidens, M.Martin, A.K.Peterson, D.Smith, M.Vellinga, E.Wallace and A.Williams     12.00 Improvement in winter seasonal predictability by including a stratospheric description in the forecast model Michel Déqué, Météo-France, Jean-François Guérémy, David Saint-Martin     12.20 Climate and seasonal forecast quality impact of increased horizontal ocean resolution Isabel Andreu-Burillo, IC3/CFU, F. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, M. Asif     14.00 An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal forecasts Yoo-Geun Ham, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC, Siegfried Schubert, and Michele M. Rienecker     14.20 Towards a Seasonal Prediction System using MPI-ESM Daniela Domeisen, University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Kristina Fröhlich, Wolfgang Müller, Michael Botzet, Holger Pohlmann, Luis Kornblueh, Steffen Tietsche, Dirk Notz, Robert Piontek, Johanna Baehr     14.40 Predictability of ENSO and IOD and their global teleconnections Swadhin Behera, JAMSTEC, Takeshi Doi, Yukio Masumoto, and Toshio Yamagata     15.00 Short-term climate extremes: prediction skill and predictability Emily Becker, Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/NWS/NCEP), Huug van den Dool, Malaquias Pena     16.00 Land and atmosphere initial states influence surface temperature forecast in dynamical seasonal predictions Stefano Materia, Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Andrea Borrelli, Alessio Bellucci, Silvio Gualdi     16.20 Impact of snow initialization in coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecasts Yvan Orsolini, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), R. Senan, A. Carrasco, G. Balsamo, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, and R.E. Benestad     16.40 Seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice with CNRM-CM5.1 Matthieu Chevallier, CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, CNRS, David Salas y Mélia, Virginie Guémas, Agathe Germe, Michel Déqué, Aurore Voldoire     17.00 The North American Multi-Model Ensemble Intraseasonal to Interannual Prediction System Ben Kirtman, University of Miami       Wednesday, 15th May       Session S4 Decadal forecast systems and results     08.40 Regional forecast quality of the CMIP5 multi-model decadal climate predictions Francisco Doblas-Reyes, ICREA and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Andreu-Burillo, Y. Chikamoto, J. García-Serrano), V. Guémas, M. Kimoto, T. Mochizuki, L.R.L. Rodrigues, G.J. van Oldenborgh     09.10 Improved predictions of global climate in the decade ahead using a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System Jeff Knight, Met Office Hadley Centre, Martin Andrews, Doug Smith, Alberto Arribas, Nick Dunstone, Craig Maclachlan, Drew Peterson, Adam Scaife, and Andrew Williams     09.30 Results from the CFSv2 CMIP5 Decadal Forecasts Edwin Schneider, George Mason University and COLA     09.50 Decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2 Bin Wang, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mimi Liu,Yongqiang Yu, Lijuan Li     10.10 Added-value from initialization in skilful predictions of North Atlantic multi-decadal variability Javier Garcia-Serrano, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat (LOCEAN-IPSL), UPMC, Virginie Guemas, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes     11.10 Skillful predictions of Atlantic multi-year to decadal variability in the GFDL forecast system Rym Msadek, GFDL/NOAA, Gabriel Vecchi, Tom Delworth, Tony Rosati, Shaoqing Zhang     11.30 Multiyear predictions of the North Atlantic variability - the impact of increased ocean model resolution Daniela Matei, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Johann Jungclaus, Wolfgang Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Ketan Kulkarni, Helmuth Haak, Jochem Marotzke     11.50 Predictability of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s and its climate impacts Jon Robson, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Rowan Sutton and Doug Smith     12.10 Is Atlantic multi-decadal variability about to change phase ? Leon Hermanson, Met Office, Martin Andrews, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Jeff Knight, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith     14.00 Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts using a statistical index Louis-Philippe Caron, Meteorology Department, Stockholm University, Colin G. Jones, Francisco Doblas-Reyes     14.20 Decadal prediction for the Arctic Klaus Wyser, Rossby Centre - SMHI, Mihaela Caian, Torben Königk, Colin Jones       Session S5 Forecast verification, calibration and combination     14.40 Assessing skill from retrospective forecasts Doug Smith, Met Office, Rosie Eade, Nick Dunstone, Leon Hermanson, Holger Pohlmann, Adam Scaife     15.10 Reliability of seasonal-to-decadal forecasts from a seamless prediction perspective Antje Weisheimer, ECMWF & University of Oxford, Susanna Corti     16.00 Probabilistic verification of decadal CMIP5 hindcast experiments Sophie Stolzenberger, Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, R. Glowienka-Hense, A. Hense, T. Spangehl, A. Mazurkiewicz, M. Schröder, R. Hollmann, F. Kaspar     16.20 Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Stéphane Vannitsem     16.40 Variation in the reliability of ensemble predictions of SSTs from seasonal to decadal timescales Chun Kit Ho, Ed Hawkins, NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Len Shaffrey, Jochen Broecker, Leon Hermanson, James Murphy, Doug Smith     17.00 An empirical-dynamical South America seasonal precipitation prediction system Caio Coelho, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)       Thursday, 16th May       Session S6 Targeted predictions, downscaling and applications     08.40 How can Seasonal to Decadal forecasts be useful to the power sector ? Laurent Dubus, EDF R&D, Julien NAJAC, Sylvie PAREY     09.10 Is there value in very long lead dynamical seasonal precipitation forecasts ? William Merryfield, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin     09.30 Seasonal Forecast in France and application to hydrology Stéphanie Singla, Jean-Pierre Céron, Direction de la Climatologie, Météo-France, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets and J.-P.Vidal     09.50 Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onset Xing Yuan, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Eric F. Wood     10.10 An Integrated Seasonal Flood Outlook for Agriculture Risk Management SHM Fakhruddin, Asian Institute of Technology, Prof. Dr. M.S. Babel, Prof. Dr. Francesco Ballio     11.10 Seasonal Climatic and Hydrologic Modeling and Prediction in the Yellow River Basin in China Shourong Wang, China Meteorological Administration, Yiping YAO, Youye Liang, Ruby Leung     11.30 Decadal predictions for Europe: Regional downscaling of the MiKlip decadal experiments Hendrik Feldmann, Karlsruhe Insititute of Technology (KIT), Sebastian Mieruch, Marianne Uhlig, Claus-Jürgen Lenz, Kevin Sieck, Christoph Kottmeier     11.50 Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa Christopher Lennard, University of Cape Town     12.10 Stochastic simulation as an alternative (or supplement) to decadal predictions Arthur Greene, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Lisa Goddard
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