ISEM 2013 - programme

Keynote speakers

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			Philippe Ciais Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Gif-sur-Yvette, France *Recent trends in CO2 emissions and sinks* Thelatest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap between current trends and the pathways required to keep climate change below 2°C. more...				Brian D. Fath Biology Department, Towson University, Towson, USA *Conceptual models of ecological dynamics : indicators of regime change* Indicating,measuring, and maintaining system complexity is a paramount challenge which could help us move beyond subjective and descriptive approaches to sustainability. more...


			Sven E. Jørgensen University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark *The development of a carbon cycling model for the Danish island of Samsø based on renewable energy* Oiland natural gas resources will be depleted within the next 50-75 years. This will present an enormous challenge to industrialized countries where we will have to change our societies in a sustainable direction and convert and adapt our lives into a fossil free existence. more...				Pierre Legendre Département de sciences biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada *Spatial eigenfunction analysis : new developments* Thepresentation will focus on the most recent developments in spatial eigenfunction analysis that are used to model multiscale spatial structures in univariate or multivariate response data. more...


			Tarzan Legovic Division of Marine and Environmental Research R. Boškovic Institute, Zagreb, Croatia *Principles concerning maximum sustainable yield in ecosystems* Since the Johannesburg Implementation Plan, 2002, a number of legal documents started advocating the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) as a goal of fishery. The most recent is the EU Green Paper on Reform of the Common Fishery Policy (April 22, 2009) which advocates : "adoption of MSY as a management principle". more...				Michel Loreau Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Experimental Ecology Station of the CNRS in Moulis, France *Disentangling and predicting the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem stability* Therelationship between the diversity and stability of ecosystems has been highly contentious over the past century. Recent work shows that biodiversity tends to stabilise aggregate ecosystem processes, while at the same time destabilising component populations. more...


			William J. Mitsch Everglades Wetland Research Park, Florida Gulf Coast University, Naples, Florida, USA *Carbon, wetlands, and climate change : a global perspective* Weshow by dynamic modeling of carbon flux results from seven detailed studies by us of temperate and tropical wetlands and from 14 other wetland studies by others that methane emissions become unimportant compared to carbon sequestration in wetlands. more...				Harald Sverdrup Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden *Developing an approach for Sweden and France for setting critical loads based on biodiversity in a time when management, pollution and climate change* Theintegrated dynamic ecosystem model ForSAFE-VEG were used to estimate critical loads for nitrogen using different chemical and biological criteria, and attempting to account for possible effects of climate change. more...

Conference topics

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	Modelling in the context of Global Change		From individuals to ecosystems
	1.1climate changes : IPCC scenarios 1.2quantifying gas emissions from agrosystems and ecosystems 1.3regional impacts of climate change 1.4sustainable management of natural resources 1.5changes in eco-hydrology 1.6impact of climate change on agrosystems, food production and food security 1.7linking ecology, economy and sociology		4.1individual-based and agent based models 4.2population dynamic models 4.3behavioral modelling 4.4modelling in genetics 4.5recent advances and new challenges in species distribution modelling 4.6modelling for large scale ecology and macroecology 4.7modelling for management and conservation of biodiversity

	Ecosystem functioning 2.1ecosystem networks 2.2monitoring and assessment for ecosystem dynamics 2.3ecological indicators 2.4linking structure and function of ecosystems 2.5ecosystem services 2.6ecological engineering Biogeochemistry and ecotoxicology 3.1biogeochemical cycles 3.2ecotoxicology 3.3contaminant transportation 3.4environmental risk assessment		New tools and technical challenges for modelling in ecology 5.1model-data fusion 5.2sensitivity analysis 5.3time series analysis 5.4remote sensing 5.5upscaling-downscaling 5.6matrix population models 5.7tools for end-users

Special sessions

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Wednesday October 30^th
14h-18h room n°1

Matrix population models : current challenges in theory and applications
Dmitrii O. Logofet and Christelle Lopes

Matrix models have long become a convenient tool to model the dynamics of a single-species, structured population. The population structure (in a relevant classification of "stages") and the individual life cycle (in the same classification) are typically known from case studies, while the matrix pattern is firmly associated with the life cycle graph. When calibrated from data, the matrix produces a number of qualitative characteristics that provide for comparative field studies or/and theoretical research. As a function of data type, this kind of model calls for both new problems in matrix theory to be solved and new IT tools to be applied. The spectrum of these topics is illustrated by speakers of the Session both in the linear and nonlinear formalisms.

Thursday October 31^st
9h-13h room n°1

Behavior monitoring in ecological modeling : theoretical and practical aspects in ecosystem stress and disturbance assessments
Tae-Soo Chon and Zongming Ren

Response behavior of indicator species has garnered a special attention in addressing ecological states under disturbed/stressful conditions, filling the gap between macro-scale (e.g., community structure) and micro-scale (e.g., molecular response) measurements effectively. Detection of response behaviors has various advantages such as in situ monitoring, econom! y and efficiency in measurement, and minimization of environmental damages. Especially behavioral monitoring is useful for early warning through continuous real-time monitoring. However, movement data are complex to analyze: highly variable (e.g., individual variation) and sensitive to various sources of noise. Along with rapid development of computational methods and interfacing techniques, considerable advancements have been achieved in behavior monitoring regarding efficiency and objectivity in assessment. Recent development of computational methods, including dynamic models, stochastic processes, informatics, statistical approaches, and other related models will be discussed. Information on monitoring methods will be further exchanged regarding prediction, assessment, and evaluation of ecosystem states across different time and space scales in this session.

Workshops

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Wednesday October 30^th
15h-18h room n°2

Introduction to the CASiMiR fuzzy modelling system for the simulation of aquatic habitats and floodplain vegetation
Ans Mouton

The use of physical habitat models for the investigation of minimum flow requirements is well-established. But habitat models have advanced considerably, allowing for expanded applications such as the planning of morphological improvements, impact studies of river engineering measures and ecological operation of dams. Particularly in this context, the altered flow regime and the impact on the waters accompanying vegetation play an important role. The CASiMiR model system has been continuously developed since the early 1990s and provides modules for the investigation of aquatic habitats and floodplains as major elements of riparian river systems.

Major features of the system are :

Processing imprecise expert knowledge about aquatic habitat requirements (fish, macroinvertebrates, macrophytes) using a fuzzy rule

based model and

Implementing floodplain a vegetation model which is based on a dynamic approach allowing for consideration of succession processes.

The course provides in addition to the theoretical background, an introduction to the functions and operation of the CASiMiR software. Case studies and an approach to derive fuzzy rules from data will be presented.

The software can be downloaded free of charge at www.casimir-software.de

This workshop presents fundamentals of habitat modelling and the approaches used in CASiMiR to describe relations between morphologic, hydraulic and biological parameters. Participants have the opportunity to work with the models and learn about the main features. Particular attention is paid to the modelling of habitats for fish, benthic invertebrates and floodplain vegetation. The underlying fuzzy logic method for the description of aquatic habitats, as well as the advantages over the conventional preference approach (e.g. PHABSIM), are addressed. The succession approach of the vegetation model is explained in detail.

Suggested schedule

	15:00-15:45	Introduction to knowledge-based aquatic species distribution modelling with CASiMiR (Dr. Jeff Tuthan, Schneider & Jorde Ecological Engineering)

	15:45-16:30	Case studies and applications of CASiMiR (Dr. Jeff Tuthan, SJE; Prof. Ans Mouton, Research Institute for Nature and Forest/Ghent University)

	16:45-18:00	Floodplain vegetation modelling with CASiMiR Vegetation (Dr. Gregory Egger - Dr. Emilio Politi, Umweltbüro Klagenfurt)